Blog

Did the Recession Start Last Year

From march of 2024 to March of 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made a oopsy daisy. As it turns out, 911,000 didn’t exist. The department in charge of tracking employment doesn’t count anything. They make projections from voluntary...

Retirement Drama: A Retiree’s Guide to StabilityPlanning in 3 Acts

Act 1: The Retirement Balancing Act — And Why It’s Not About Picking Stocks If you think retirement planning is just “invest and hope,” you’ve been sold a Hallmark card, not a strategy. Some people think retirement is like lounging on...

Hurricane Horror Stories and Hacks

We are in the first innings of hurricane season so I thought it wise to help you plan from a financial perspective. After the storms of 2022 and 2024, all Florida homeowners now know that having damage from a hurricane is only the...

Sudden Money Mistakes Part 1

I’m old enough to remember the black and white TV show, The Beverly Hillbillies. Old Jed struck oil when he missed a varmint with his rifle. Next thing you know, Old Jed's a millionaire. Impulsively, he moved his Appalachian clan to...

The $11 Trillion Refinance

Bottom Line: If the debt ceiling doesn’t get raised and rates don’t get cut dramatically by August of 2025, the US economy will suffer bigly. It turns out $11 trillion dollars in loans come due in the next twelve months for Uncle Sam....

Least Worse Way to Lease a Car

Should you lease a car? No. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. If you are still reading it’s because you know that buying a quality used car and driving until the wheels fall off is the least expensive to own a car. However, you may...

The Retirement Success Formula

I’ve been doing this long enough to see clients go from business owners or employees to successful retirees. I’ve observed three factors that contribute to perceived retirement success and satisfaction. The non-scientific formula can...

Why China Lost the Trade War

It’s April 30 as I write this and China hasn’t lost the trade war yet. But it’s a foregone conclusion. For Americans, we fret over the economic powerhouse built on the resilience, teamwork and sacrifice of the Chinese. However, as...

SP500 Juice from Concentrate

Do you remember the game Concentration? Me neither, but apparently, it’s where you flip cards over and try to remember where the matching card was. If that sounds boring to you, that’s because it was. But in the 1960’s, it was a real...

Tips: More Bang for your Buck

What if you could spend the same amount of money and get more stuff? What if you could spend less and get same amount of stuff? What tips do you have that help you maximize your spending? On February 3, I predicted that Trump would...

Subprime Mortgage Crisis 2.0?

Subprime Bubble 2.0? I’m addicted to ReVenture Consulting's YouTube page. He travels around the country giving color commentary on what his Real Estate analysis firm is finding. About two weeks ago, he revealed that over 1,000,000...

Tiny Housing Bubbles?

In a previous blog back in 2023, I shared economist Fred Harrison’s prediction that 2026 would be a housing market top. As usual, I was a bit early and nobody cared. Welp, how do you like me now? Click here for that absolute...

Make Recessions Great Again

Make Recessions Great Again I have a conspiracy theory I’d like to share. Everything Donald Trump is doing is moving the US economy towards a recession. He knows this because he believes it is what the US economy needs. If you love...

If I Were the American Emperor

The new administration is being handed an economy that is a ticking time bomb. To diffuse it, Trump needs to handle runaway debt and persistent. In the last 100 days, we’ve added $1 Trillion to the national debt. And have been since...

Happy Turkey Day!

Wishing you all the best this Thanksgiving from all of us at Privada Wealth Management! Gobble til you Wobble! ~Warren Buffet (maybe)

Set it and Forget It?

Recency bias defined as the tendency to overweight the importance of recent events over events further back in history. For instance, after 4 months of Florida summer, I’m likely to sell my leather jacket for $5 because I can’t imagine...

Living Well and Leaving Well

When you think of an Estate Plan you probably envision a Vanderbilt sipping tea in their garden as their entitled grandchildren conspire in the shadows. I’ll grant you, generation skipping trusts and burying a relative at your country...

Soft Landing?

The chart below shows periods in history when the yield curve has been inverted. It takes the 10 year treasury yield and subtracts the 2 year treasury yield. Normally, you should get paid more interest to hold treasury for 10 years...

Minus 818,000

A few weeks back, I warned you that the true nature of the economy was being hidden in economic reports. They are always revised downward. Inflation is worse than they are reported. Consumers are out of savings and using credit cards...

Inflation and My Exploding Sunroof

My brother and I were driving down US 27 coming back from visiting our parents in sleepy Sebring, Florida. I was commenting on how many personal injury attorney billboards we saw. “Injured, you may be entitled to compensation!” read...

Crashflation?

We all know that stagflation is here. It’s simple. Rising asset prices like the stock market and real estate and food and energy are the “flation” part. Flat wage growth, rising unemployment and lower productivity and consumer...

Mr. Brightside

I’m coming out my cage and I’m doing just fine, you know I’ve got to be down because I want it all. I realize that my blogs have been a drag as I’ve point out the structural weaknesses of the economy underlying this melt-up phase of...

Big Mac Status Symbol

In the halcyon days of pre-pandemic dining, I used to post pictures of my food to social media. And if you are honest, so did you. It was fun to go to a fancy restaurant with low lighting, obnoxious music and deconstructed cheeseburger...

Two Times Normal

I came across a really great quote yesterday. “Everyone is a Warren Buffet, until it’s time to do Warren Buffet stuff.” ~Rey Descalso, 2024 I’m partial to it because I wrote it. Warren Buffet is the original gangster of Omaha. What I...

Revisionist Economics

Being the bold visionary that I am, I wrote a blog in 2017 that became even more relevant over the weekend. In the literary masterpiece I said to ignore financial news for seven days. I list a few reasons and I would like to elaborate...

The Oracle of FOMOha

FOMO is an abbreviateon for The Fear of Missing Out. The Cambridge Dictionary says it best, “abbreviation for "fear of missing out": a worried feeling that you may miss exciting events that other people are going to, especially...

Possible 2024 Car B Que

If the Biden administration decided to launch airstrikes against Iran and its proxies while the markets are paused for the weekend (February 3 and 4, 2024), how would the world react? Hard to say. On the one hand, Monday morning not...

eBook Offer: Upgrading Your Annuity

Annuities are a lot like electric. Every year, there are model upgrades. But there's a dark side. Electric vehicles destroy the environment. The electricity is produced with fossil fuels in a place far from the driver. The absence of...

It's Worse than you Think

Let's talk about Long bonds and the S&P 493. There is no such thing as the S&P 493, but still. Long dates bonds are down almost 43% as measured in the year to date performance of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) TLT since this time three...

Glory Days Gone By?

The Federal Reserve can set rates. But when US Treasuries go to auction the market decides how much 10 and 30 years of lending is actually worth. For years the Treasury paid very little, so real estate and stocks made a lot more sense....

Economist Predicts Housing Crash

Over the weekend, a client asked me to comment on economist Fred Harrison’s prediction of a housing market crash in 2026. Here’s a great article I suggest you read first.  This is Fred. First of all, let me...

The Disappearing Mortgage Lenders

 At one point, Wells Fargo was and wanted to be the biggest residential mortgage lender in the United States. However, in January of this year, they changed their mind. Turns out they are simply following Bank of America and JP...

Fake News: GreedFlation and WageFlation

Rising wages are being blamed for inflation. The Wall Street Journal says the American Worker is in the drivers seat and is demanding higher pay. This is leading to more inflation. Keep in mind, it was corporate greed and...

The Empty Skyscraper Index

One of the concerns I have for the economy at large is a perfect storm in commercial real estate. Bloomberg has a great article that lays out the coming crisis. Bottom line, we don’t need gleaming office buildings in city centers...

FatFlation: You can’t Outwork a Bad Diet

Since 2020, I’ve lost about thirty pounds. It wasn’t easy, but it was simple. And while exercise was important, I quickly learned that an entire pint of Jeni’s Gooey Butter Cake ice cream quickly cancels out all that...

Follow the Money; Beware the Traps

The late, great Walter Wriston once said, “Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.”Once you understand that axiom, the seeming chaos and finer details of economics and monetary policy begin to...

My Twin Flame Janet Yellen

On April 11, Janet Yellen gave herself and her colleagues a gold star and said: “I’ve not really seen evidence at this stage suggesting a contraction in credit, although that is a possibility,” Yellen said at a press...

Brace Yourself 2008 is Coming

Maybe I’m wrong. Would love for you to read this and make the case for a bull market or even a mild recession. If I’m right, we’ll see 2008 on steroids. If I'm right, this is the most important thing you'll read all...

The Dollar is Dead; Long Live the Dollar

Back in 2005, I was convinced that the dollar was toast. Hyperinflation was afoot and precious metals, commodities and ammunition would be the only currency worth anything. The Dollar is Dead!I was wrong. Long Live the Dollar!Imagine...

No Banking Crisis for Old Men Screenplay

Experts: There is no banking crisis. Me: Okay, kinda feels like it. But if you so, that sounds reasonable and great.…a few weeks later…Experts: We’ve just about got this banking crisis wrapped up. You’re...

Life Insurance: HOT, NOW, YET

I had a delightful visit with prospective clients in their home, not far from Daytona Beach. After the appointment, I decided to go smell the salt sea air and feel the sand betwixt my toes. There’s something grounding about being...

SVB: Idiosyncratic or Idiot Synchronization

I realize most of the financial world has moved on from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). And why not. The zeitgeist is that these evil venture capitalists started a whisper campaign and cashed out of their wild west bank in a few days....

Bank Failures: Don't Yawn

Silicon Valley Bank: Don’t YawnIn this video intrepid financial personality Jim Kramer is caught in February saying that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a boring investment idea. He says, “Don’t Yawn” as though...

Chicken Little Listicle: 5 Crisis Triggers

Chicken Little Listicle: 5 Crisis TriggersA listicle is a click-bait type article where the lazy author lists 5 favorite things or 5 reasons why something something. They are simple to write, easy to read and tend to make an impact....

The Perfect Investment Doesn’t Exist

Back in 2017, I unveiled a revolutionary way of analyzing your portfolio that could be a major breakthrough for millions of retail investors. Unfortunately, nobody reads my blog except for you. The unwashed hoi polloi meanwhile toil in...

529 Plans Just Got Better

I don’t usually compliment the government when they make changes to existing investment and tax law. And I do so now begrudgingly. But I got to call it like I see it. The Secure Act 2.0 just sweetened the deal for 529 plans.As a...

Artificial Blog Intelligence: Stock Market Bull

The following is a blog written by Artificial Intelligence making the case that we are now in a bull market for stocks. Keep in mind, I’m not agreeing with or promoting this. What I want to show you is that a case can always be...

Artificial Blog Intelligence: Stock Market Crash

The Following Blog was written by artificial intelligence. I asked it to write a blog post about an upcoming stock market crash. Next I’ll ask it to write a blog post about a stock market boom. Enjoy.It is important to note that...

You Don’t Need an Emergency Fund

In the chaos of the Pandemic of 2020, the world shut down. If you were a retiree on pensions, Social Security and income from your portfolio, life was altered but manageable. However, if you were still in the workforce the situation...

2023 Economic Outlook: Caveat Emptor

Now that 2022 is in the rearview, let me first congratulate you on making it through one of the worst years in the markets in recent memories. Last year ranked in the Top 8% for volatility of all time. That doesn’t mean it went...

I Need Your Advice

People pay me for advice. Well now I’d like to turn the tables on you and ask for your advice. And I won’t be paying you. If that sounds like a great deal, keep reading.I sold my desk. I bought her back in 2012 for $2500....

Elon Musk: It’s the Fed, Stupid

This morning I noticed a tweet exchange with Elon Musk and Investment Advisor Ross Gerber. Mr. Gerber doesn’t like how Tesla stock is going down and has ideas to fix it. Elon Musk feels that interest rates are what’s...

The Upside Down Bizarro Financial World

Our in-house Chartered Market Technician and Certified Financial Technician, Jared Coffin and I were reviewing recent economic and market data. He brought to my attention that we are living in a type of upside down, bizzarro world...

Social Security: Timing Is Everything

I don’t now how I missed this one: Republicans are considering pushing Social Security Full Retirement Age and Medicare benefits to age 70. Here’s an article for more details: click hereMedicare eligibility begins at age 65...

Advice from Billionaires

Advice from BillionairesOne of the richest men in the world is advising making large purchases. Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, is telling anyone who will listen that an economic downturn is coming. In fact, it may have already started...

One Size Fits All, Poorly

I’m lucky enough to live near the theme parks. You could say I’m Happiest Place on Earth adjacent. Because of that Central Florida is a great place to raise a daughter. She has no idea how lucky she is to be 15 minutes from...

Debt Forgiveness is Unforgiving

The student loan debt forgiveness put forth by the Biden administration has become a hot topic on the news and on social media. I’d like to offer a few bipartisan takeaways that apply to your own personal financial plan.First of...

Nothing More than Feelings?

Woke InvestingInvestment themes are cyclical. Asset class sectors rotate. But when Wall Street invents a new investment fad, buyer beware. On the surface, investing with a concern for environmental impact, social justice and...

Recession Activating System

There are two examples of the Reticular Activating System I’d like to share:I once knew a mom with a newborn. She propped her baby up on the couch and dozed off. The TV was on, there were cars honking on the busy streets below...

1981: Back to the Future

Earlier today, the inflation numbers came out. 9.1% for the trailing twelve months ending in June of 2022. I’d like to share a few observations with you. The 9.1% number combines a lot of different prices of things you...

Commodities and Contraction

On May 28 of last year, I was concerned about $5 a gallon of gas by May of this year. I was off by a month. My apologies. Then my biggest concern was inflation. It’s here and now I wonder how the economy will navigate out of it...

Work is Play and Rules are Tools

An Ice-Cold Investment Idea

You Can Have Anything*

Striking Back Against Inflation

Will the Bear Trap You?

How Your Dollar Shrinks

Back in May of 2021, I was concerned the following may come true: Predicting future prices is difficult. But recent inflation numbers (see past blogs) show a strong trend towards rising prices in certain sectors of our economy. My...

Build Back Bitter

This morning the news is covering the idea put forth by Janet Yellen on behalf of the Biden Administration to tax unrealized gains. Bottom line up front is that this will not pass any time soon. But it will still have ramifications and...

Diet Cola: The Sequel

A picture is worth a thousand words. That's it. That's the blog. If you'd like some financial behavioral therapy click here. //

Social Security’s Diet COLA

Great news! Social Security in their generosity and wisdom have given retirees the biggest bump in their payouts in over 40 years. That’s right, folks, a 5.9% increase! Just like a Christmas tree, 2022 is going to be lit. Source...

Evergrande Fairyland

In response to several calls I've received regarding Evergrande I thought I'd get you up to date about what you can do in response. Turns out this real-estate behemoth is into electric cars and Fairyland theme parks. First read this...

Emmy Award Winners

In the spirit of last night’s Emmy awards, I’d like to share three videos with you. Unlike Netflix, there is no subscription necessary to view. It’s scripted reality, not fiction. The star of these videos is not quite...

Palantir Calling for a Black Swan

Just in time for the 20th anniversary of September 11, several news agencies have noticed that Palantir is calling for a Black Swan Event. That brings up two questions. What is a Black Swan Event and who in the world is Palantir? First...

If It’s Free, You’re the Product

I enjoy social media. I can keep in touch with family half way around the globe and let them know what I ate for lunch. Furthermore, I can share funny cat videos with friends from high school. Good times. One of the great things about...

The Easy Money Indicator

As I've written ad nauseum in previous blogs, we here at Privada Wealth Management believe that technical indicators provide a useful, albeit imperfect, discipline to help manage your portfolio. Using mathematics to help us with our...

Inflation? What Inflation?

Note: This is meant to illustrate how your lifestyle is impacted by inflation. This picture does not illustrate current or predict future Federal Reserve inflation target of 2%. Nor is it mocking their valiant efforts to date.

The Thundering Herd of Lemmings

There's nothing wrong with internet stocks or mortgages. And yet, internet stock mania came crashing down in 2001 and structured credit helped cause the Great Recession of 2008. In both cases a normal asset class became "the next big...

Mr. Burns Goes to Washington: "Excellent!"

I once wrote a blog about common-man laborer, Homer Simpson and his capitalist boss, Mr. Burns. Click here to read it. It was a long-winded parable about the rise in asset prices vs. the stagnation in income growth for most Americans....

Leaving and Receiving an Inherited IRA

I ran across a sad story this morning that can illustrate several points, both financial and behavioral. It's a story of parents who left behind money and children who made one wrong move. A father past away and left a large IRA to his...

Here’s How Inflation Can Lead to Deflation

This is a difficult blog to write without oversimplifying things. Predicting the economy is like predicting the weather. We know the seasons will have certain characteristics, but we don’t know if the hurricane comes on September...

The Sun Also Rises

The first historical graph shows a bunch of lines that have little to no emotional impact. That’s good. We need to approach the data with a cold, hard scientific mind. However, we are but flesh and blood. So the next two...

Enjoy Retirement: Turn off the News

Typically, I write blogs that are loquacious literary masterpieces of wit and wisdom. For instance, I've covered why we should fade the news when it comes to financial planning, click here. But I also want to start posting articles I...

A Deer in the Headlines

You’ve heard the phrase "a deer in the headlights." It's when a deer is mesmerized and confused by the headlines lights of your oncoming car. There he stands as you hurtle towards him at over 60 miles per hour in your two-ton...

The Brighter Side of Inflation

In every crisis there is danger and opportunity. So while I've droned on and on regarding the evils of inflation and tried to scare you, I have to be fair and balanced. In an age of faux news, it's my responsibility to share with you...

Thomas Jefferson: Conspiracy Theorist

You may have heard of Thomas Jefferson in history class. He did a few things to help get the good old US of A up and running. What you may not know is that he was one of those conspiracy theorists. I don't know if they had tin foil...

Cutting In the Middle Man

Remember when you had to go the store to buy a computer. Ah, yes, the good old days. You'd get in your car and sweat as the air conditioner started to finally cool things down. Then you'd fight for a parking space as you dodged...

Inflation: America Runs on Donuts

It's late May of 2021 as I write this. Peering out my window, I wonder what could happen a few months hence in terms of real-world inflation. You see my concern is two-fold. I help my clients invest their money in a way that takes...

The Economic Cycle: A Play in 6 Acts

In my last blog, I noted that inflation as measured by CPI had jumped from 2.6 to 4.2% in April. The obvious significance to you in the next few weeks and months are higher prices. But there's a course of events that have happened in...

Stagflation: And so it Begins

After 13 years of planning for inflation for my clients, I finally feel vindicated. But I'm not patting myself on the back. I'm actually sad to be right. After printing money into a goldilocks environment, it seems inflation may be a...

Mathset versus Mindset

Let's say you're going to retire next month. You need $5,000 a month to live your current lifestyle. You owe $100,000 on your mortgage with 12 years left until it's paid off. The interest rate is 3.75%. Your mortgage is $1,400 a month...

Steps to Choosing a Financial Planner

Who can you trust in a pandemic? First, they said masks weren't necessary. Then they said they were mandated. Then they came out with possible treatments. Then those possible treatments were debunked or tossed aside. And why was...

Why Does a Stock Price go Up or Down?

I'll be quick here today and get to the point. You and I have no idea why a stock price is going up or down. It just is happening. Deal with it. Several years from now we may have the clarity to know why a stock price rises or falls....

HSA: Now and Later

I just got off the phone with a couple in their late 30’s and early 40’s. After discussing several financial planning decisions and updates we talked about the weather in Colorado where they are vs. Florida where I am....

Cover Your Assets: 8 Lessons from a Scam

My client has given me permission to share this story. I've changed his name and some details to protect his privacy but the important lessons remain. On a busy Sunday of running errands, John's phone rang while he was driving. It was...

The K Shaped Recovery

Several weeks ago a couple came in to visit me, we’ll call them Mr. and Mrs. K. Mr. K had retired from the military and was working part time at a national home improvement store. Mrs. K was working full time in the healthcare...

Zombie Apocalypse Preparedness

Over ten years ago, zombie movies and TV shows sprung to life as the genre became a dominant trope in collective consciousness. Ten years later, our sweat-soaked tax dollars were spent on a tongue-in-cheek campaign at the CDC....

The Noble Art of Tax Avoidance

With the recent NY Times expose on Donald Trump's leaked tax returns, I thought it appropriate to focus once again on taxes and their impact on retirement. Let me get straight to the point. You will pay taxes either now or later....

Farmer Bill and his Three Sons

The tale is told of a farmer named Bill and his three sons. There are several lessons that can be learned. You see Bill was a successful farmer because of his three sons, even though they were very different in temperament and ability....

The Critical Retirement Rule Change

One of the challenges of financial planning, specifically retirement income planning, is the fact that the rules continuously change. Taxes laws change with each administration and the Trump tax code was no exception. By now, you're...

Thirty Two Years and Eleven Days

One of the hidden dangers in retirement is tax instability. In other words, you don't know what your future tax burden will be. In financial planning, as in life, it's best to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Unfortunately, my...

The Lighter Side of Mental Accounting

Mental accounting is a behavioral economics concept introduced in 1999 by Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler. He pointed out the different values people place on money, based on subjective criteria. Typically, mental...

Entering the Stratosphere

The 200-day moving average is used by many technicians to differentiate between long-term uptrends and downtrends. Above the moving average is considered bullish, and below is considered bearish. This line can often act as support or...

Cartoon World Has the Greats Perplexed

What do the following great investor minds, ranked in no particular order, have in common? Warren Buffet Jared Coffin Stanley Druckenmiller Rey Descalso Seth Klarman Ray Dalio They are all perplexed by the current market conditions. In...

A Temporary Pause May be Needed

The market rally off the March 2020 low has been stunning to say the least. It has mostly been a technology led rally with the top 5 largest stocks doing most of the heavy lifting. Rey Descalso and I have touched on this multiple times...

Revenge of the Giant Five

Back on April 28, Jared Coffin and I shared a blog explaining the hidden weakness of the equity market. It's worth a read again as the situation is more acute now than ever. Several weeks later, Wolf Richter has an interesting update...

Questioning Financial Advertising

My colleague and Chartered Market Technician, Jared Coffin, pointed out an interesting piece of advertising this morning. We spend an inordinate of time discussing the trends in our industry. When commission-free trading was introduced...

The Coming  Index Fund Pandemic

"If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe...The markets would fail." - John Bogle, May 2017 Ask yourself why John Bogle, the creator of the first index fund, would say such a thing. He said this in May of...

Is the Stock Market Detached from Reality?

The stock market feels broken. Currently, more than 108,000 Americans have lost their lives to the coronavirus. Unemployment has now reached 42+ million Americans. Stimulus checks have been mailed to many just to keep them afloat in...

Why I’m A Passionate Financial Planner

What Started it All In my first career, I was a minister. Eventually I became the co-senior pastor of a wonderful congregation just up the road from my office. It was a great experience that equipped me to have the heart of a teacher....

Row Row Row your Boat

From Rey: We are lucky to have a Chartered Market Technician on staff here at Privada Wealth Management. In our morning market debrief, Jared shared some data with me I thought was imperative to pass on. His insight and data points...

The 3 E’s: How We Help Our Clients

During an unprecedented global pandemic and historic market volatility, I've found some time to reflect on my place in all of this as a financial planner. Perhaps I can summarize how we help our clients in the following three ways:...

Coronavirus: Glimmers of Hope

In the midst of this Coronavirus emergency, I wanted to quickly send a message out of hope that we will get through this as individuals, communities and a nation. Naturally, nothing here should be taken as medical or legal advice. So...

Not so Fast

The past few weeks have brought about some of the wildest price action in a long time. The other day while grabbing my morning coffee, the barista asked me if she should be worried. She mentioned reading a headline that said something...

What a Difference a Week Makes

Last week wasn't for the faint of heart. The market had a horrible week, and that's being kind. Half of the rally from the December 2018 low was evaporated in seven trading sessions. The sell-off itself wasn't all that surprising due...

Bezos: Amazon Will Go Bankrupt

The richest man in the world is Jeff Bezos. He is the largest stakeholder in Amazon and also it’s founder. Although he built Amazon, he’s open to the idea that eventually it will go belly up. He realizes great companies can...

Two Hacks for Delaying Gratification

Delaying Gratification: Systems over GoalsUnfortunately, retirement planning will take hard work and discipline. If you are approaching retirement, that means working hard to earn the money that you use to fund your retirement accounts...

Is the Coronavirus a Black Swan?

Happy Chinese New Year and welcome to the year of the Rat! For those of us in the United States, we may follow the solar new year and it's easy to miss the celebrations. As you may have heard, celebrations in China have been muted...

New Year: New Lessons

The year 2019 ended up being an impressive year for the stock market. If you had told me on December 24, 2018, that within a year we'd be trading above 3,200 in the S&P 500, I would've considered such projections as overly optimistic....

The Secure Act of 2019 and What it Means for You

On Tuesday, December 17th, the Secure Act of 2019 was attached to a spending bill. This piggyback effect meant that the Secure Act would be passed or the government would be shut down. While the dust is still settling on some of the...

Corporate Debt Storm Clouds

In high school science class, we learn about cause and effect. The sun shines, water evaporates, clouds form and it rains. These cycles of cause and effect happen in the economy as well. Over ten years have passed since the Great...

Does 2020 Rhyme with 1937?

If you are reading this you've probably heard of Warren Buffet. But have you heard of Ray Dalio? You can learn a lot about him here. Suffice it to say he's an investment guru who founded the largest hedge fund in the world, managing...

The Heart of a Teacher

In back to back appointments, I’ve talked to two potential clients. They are not clients yet. They are interviewing me to see if I may be able to help them with their financial planning. At the same time, I’m trying to...

The Asset Allocation Tug of War

The Asset Allocation Tug of War In general, I’m a firm believer in sticking with what works for you. Don’t blindly follow what works for others. We’re all different, and many of us have different goals to achieve on...

The Magical Shrinking Social Security Check

Recently, the Social Security Administration announced that the cost of living adjustments (COLA) for 2020 would be 1.6%. That means if you make $1500 in 2019 per month, your 2020 checks will be about $1524. And that's the good news....

Will ETFs Dethrone Mutual Funds?

Several times a year, I hold an educational workshop called Taxes in Retirement. If you're interested in attending our upcoming workshop click here. During the class, I mention the tax-efficiency of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as...

Eat the Rich!

Taxes aren't your fault, but they are your problem. You better muscle up, butter cup. I've struggled my whole life to not gain more weight and to lose about 30 pounds that I shouldn't be carrying. When you look at the Body Mass Index...

The Federal Reserve’s Third Mandate

Historically, the Federal Reserve has had a dual mandate: Keep unemployment and inflation low. The idea is that lower interest rates mean it's easier for businesses to borrow capital to hire more workers. This increases production. As...

Always Remember...

"Time is passing. Yet, for the United States of America, there will be no forgetting September the 11th. We will remember every rescuer who died in honor. We will remember every family that lives in grief. We will remember the fire and...

Social Security Catch 22

Too often, Social Security timing is taken for granted when planning for retirement. Consider the following: If you look at the Social Security Handbook describing all the provisions about Social Security benefits, it has 2,728 rules....

In Defense of Trade Wars

You'll recall in 2018, I wrote a blog about the folly of tariffs. Any thorough analysis of the issue, however, requires me to see things from the other side. In fact, if you can't clearly understand both sides of an issue chances are...

Books: A Wealth of Knowledge at Your Fingertips

It's funny how things change over time. I remember in grade school and throughout college how much I disliked reading books. Occasionally I would read an entire book, but it was rare. I seldom enjoyed the subject matter I was forced to...

Excuses Don’t Make Money

I've had the privilege of meeting and speaking with some great traders. I've been able to soak up a wealth of knowledge from our discussions ─ knowledge which can't be taught by a textbook. We've challenged each other's research and...

Is Your Holy Grail for Investing a Myth?

For a brief period when I first began trading, I went down the rabbit hole of thinking there was some magical strategy – some holy grail ─ that would just print money nonstop. I thought I could find some method, I could continue...

Higher or Lower: Do You Have a Plan?

Recently I've been hearing more and more from market participants about how impressive the returns have been thus far in 2019. However, it's all relative, based on your starting point. Those who implemented a portfolio at the beginning...

Our Philosophy on Model Portfolios

One of the approaches we advocate is the use of model portfolios. We use our own and third-party asset managers. Our model portfolio is a culmination of our best ideas based upon time-tested investment principles and an understanding...

The ABC’s of Power Spending

A certain large bank received ridicule for an advertising campaign that encouraged saving over frivolous spending. Critics alleged that they were poor-shaming Americans who found their bank accounts too low. Essentially, the bank...

90 Days of Inversion

It's June 17, 2019. Today the yield curve has been inverted for a full 90 days. According to professor Harvey Campbell of Duke University, that means a recession is coming in 12 to 18 months. He wrote a dissertation in 1986 and the...

The Ideal Work Environment: Candidly Sharing Feedback

Before I got into financial services, I worked as a camera assistant in the film industry for several years. I worked and lived in both Orlando, Florida, and Los Angeles, California. Whether I was working on commercials, television...

Brace Yourself: 401k Changes are Coming

Friday, May 24, the Wall Street Journal reported on sweeping legislative changes passed by the House regarding your 401k and IRA. While the legislation still needs to be passed by the Senate before reaching the President's desk, the...

Buy and Hold: Much Harder Than It Sounds

I've often come across articles and studies about the positive benefits or negative side effects of various products. One year I'll read that a given product is good for you. Later, I may read a conflicting study that states this...

The Game of Risk

Last night, our Ring spotlight camera went off. Something went bump in the night. Turns out it was a feral cat scaling our porch screen. Could have been worse. We installed the cameras because there is a risk that our Amazon package...

There's More to Investing than Beating a Benchmark

When you tune into a financial news network, you often hear, "the Dow Jones has gained or lost x percentage today." Or, "the S&P 500 has gained or lost x percentage.” These are indices that we commonly hear referenced. Many times...

Quotes: Free Advice Worth Listening To

One thing I've learned over the years: Learn from other people's mistakes to avoid making them yourself. Given that I have a passion for anything related to the stock market, I've studied the words and habits of some well-known traders...

Don't Let Hindsight Fool You

I remember years ago when I first decided to trade stocks. I looked at a few charts and thought: How hard can this possibly be? I will buy stocks when they're going up, and sell - or short sell - stocks that are going down. I was...

Homer Simpson vs Mr. Burns

The Simpsons used to be viewed as a portrait of a lower-middle class family. You remember Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa and Lisa, don't you? They had a house, car, job security, and a single wage-earner who didn’t graduate college....

3/9/09: Never Forget

I remember where I was on March 9, 2009. I was in a hotel on Maho Beach not far from where the 747's land on a small strip of land in the middle of the Caribbean. The weather was perfect, the water was every shade of blue. After...

Endless Opportunities: Don't Get FOMO'd

I remember that back in my early twenties I never missed a weekend of socializing with friends. It was a well-established routine. I would work all week, hang out all weekend - and I mean every weekend. Obviously, I loved being around...

Obey the Rules

If I were to ask someone what their ideal investment portfolio is, I would expect their response to be, "I want 100 percent of the upside with zero drawdowns." Well, that quite frankly is impossible. However, I want to explain a little...

Is This Time Any Different? Or Did We Forget What It's Like?

My nephew recently turned 5 years old. My younger brother and his wife were visiting from California at the time and suggested taking him to Chuck E. Cheese for his birthday. I remember going there when I was younger and thinking it...

Financial Planning Upgrades

My smartphone has slowly and imperceptibly become an integrated tool of my everyday life. Perhaps you've noticed the same. It slices, it dices and makes Julienne fries. What a wonderful time to be alive. In fact, when my smartphone...

Is There Traffic Ahead?

I have often heard my colleague, Rey Descalso, use the analogy that investing is similar to driving a car. On highways, with minimal traffic, we go the full speed limit. Maybe slightly faster, depending on the type of drivers we are....

Data over Emotion

I'll never forget the first trade I made in my personal brokerage account. I was sitting in my apartment in Los Angeles, California, at 6:30am when the opening bell rang in New York City. I had a plan in place and my order queued up...

The Daily Grind

Holiday festivities give way to New Year's resolutions. "New Year, New Me!" Is parroted all over social media as we declare our best intentions and goals for 2019. It's a tale as old as time. We write down our goals, create lists of...

Sophia, the Wise

Disclaimer: This is a made up story, a parable. It never happened and probably never will. Any resemblance to actual humans is coincidental and besides the point. What follows is not a description of a specific security nor is it the...

Thanatopsis

My uncle Steve died unexpectedly and we had his funeral service the Sunday before Thanksgiving. He was a gentle giant of a man and only 54 years young. His passing was deeply painful to my family and it jarred me out of the hypnotic...

The Fruit of all Hubris

It has been said that the love of money is the root of all evil. Can I be so bold as to add a corollary to that axiomatic statement? The love of a stock is the fruit of all hubris. Let me explain. Sears has filed for bankruptcy. The...

Consumerism: Planned Obsolescence

I recently upgraded to the most recent operating system and I’m just waiting for the inevitable slowdown. Turns out Apple purposely slows your phone down if it gets too old. They say it’s to save you from ruining your phone...

Asset Allocation and Why Leverage is Good

I know what you’re thinking, dear reader: “Oh great! Another boring, vanilla blog on asset allocation. Only now, my advisor is so bullish he things we should use leverage (investing with borrowed money).” Well,...

Primary Care or the Emergency Room

The Annals of Internal Medicine published a study that showed that approximately over 30% of prescriptions go unfilled. If you drill down a bit more you find that about 80% of bronchitis and 74% of skin irritation prescriptions go...

The Domesticated Consumer

There are over 12,000 wild wolves roaming North America. There are over 89 million dogs. So the question is, why are there so many dogs, and so few wolves? I ask this question, because I'm wondering who domesticated who? Did we...

Facebook, FOMO and Financial Pressure: Part 2

Sorry for the delay in bringing you the much anticipated second installment of this blog post. You can catch up with where our hero left off here by clicking here. I discovered the evils of peer pressure in fifth grade. It led good...

Heart Palpitations below 200

My drive into work consists of satellite radio and podcasts. I don't listen to rock 'n' roll to get pumped up for the workday that lies ahead. Instead, I flip back and forth between CNBC, Bloomberg and investment related podcasts....

Breaking Up: It’s not You, It’s GE

Love is a funny thing. Statues and sonnets are dedicated to this most primal of human emotions. The infatuation, the depth, the betrayal and the heartbreak are the stuff of legends. But this, dear reader, is a financial blog, not an...

Designing a Flight Path for Investing

On any given day approximately 8 million people hop aboard an airplane to a predetermined destination. There're two types of passengers. Those that enjoy the excitement of the adventure. Then there's the unfortunate bunch that must do...

You’ve Got a Fiduciary in Me

Behind the scenes our industry, the SEC, FINRA and the Department of Labor are parsing what it means to be a fiduciary. It’s a worthwhile conversation. For me, the debate doesn't matter. As an Accredited Investment Fiduciary®...

Facebook, FOMO and Financial Pressure: Part 1

A few days ago, I was sick. Achy, stuffy with a painful sore throat. It was gray and raining outside and had been for a few days. It was a tropical depression in more ways than one. Being a domesticated snowflake I made an appointment...

Eating Your Own Advice

Let's say you are looking for advice on what to eat. You have two friends that are good friends. You know them well and trust their ethics and intelligence. In separate conversations you tell them your health goals, frustrations, and...

Never Buy a New Car Again

Americans love the open road and the freedom that cars provide. Cars are an emotional possession that reflect what we value and how we see ourselves. But having a car is a necessary evil when you look at the financials. You must get to...

You Sunk My Battleship

During World War II, Winston Churchill gave many rousing speeches to the English people as they were fighting in the air, land and sea. If you ever have the chance to watch Gary Oldman's portrayal of the Bulldog, I highly recommend it....

The Business Owner’s Fountain of Youth

Business owners inspire me. I’m lucky to have several successful, smart business owners as clients. When we meet to review their financial plan inevitably I find myself learning something new about how to be a better business...

How to Be One of My Favorite Clients

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the other day (March 22nd) down 700 points. Checking through my email, I saw that Julia had sent me an email. Paraphrasing, she said, "I'm freaking out. Should I be scared, or should I stop...

Virgin Steel, Vulcanized Rubber and Chicken Parts

Perhaps you've heard that President Donald Trump is proposing aluminum and steel tariffs on all foreign imports to the United States of America. There's a couple things that I'd like to talk about when it comes to this policy. On my...

A Tale of Two Sentiments

It was the best of times it was the worst of times… Don’t worry this blog won’t be as long as the classic from which it borrows nothing but a title and opening line. I just wanted to take your temperature, so to...

Are 529 Plans a Waste of Money?

This morning I dropped my wife's car off at the auto body shop. Then I walked over to the Starbucks next door. As I sipped a venti coffee, I listened to an interview with George Mason University economics professor Bryan Caplan. He's...

The Velocity of Money Episode 2: The Phantom Menace

In Part 1, we learned about the heroic efforts of the Federal Reserve to keep inflation manageable and unemployment low. They don't do this with the Force or Jedi mind tricks, per se. Instead they lower rates to ignite the economy and...

The Velocity of Money  Episode 1: A New Hope

I started my career in the financial world in 2005 at what was then AG Edwards. Naive and idealistic, I devoured the standard text to pass my Series 7 securities licensing. Because I'm a nerd, many of the broad concepts were familiar...

Planning to get Punched

Poet, philosopher and pugilist Mike Tyson once opined, "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." After a steep decline of over 8% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from January 29 to February 5, many investors feel...

Your Mortgage Pride and Prejudice

We all have our preconceived opinions not based on reason or actual experience. It's called a prejudice. That's a bad word in today's culture and I'm accusing you of being prejudiced. Once you stop clutching your Victorian pearls in...

Financial Peace is a Myth

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain stood outside of 10 Downing Street in London and declared to those gathered,"I have returned from Germany with peace for our time." A year later, Hitler's Germany invaded Poland. The rest is...

Efficient vs Effective Retirement Planning

In life we often have to choose between efficient and effective. Efficient is quicker and easier. Effective gets the job done, albeit with varying convenience. Let me give you an example. When you order clothes from Amazon you take a...

Your Financial Crystal Ball

After circling the sun, human nature likes to look back at the last 365 days and look forward to the next. It's very healthy to take stock of the last year and solidify your plans going forward. However, there's also a propensity. We...

Hey Man, Premature Retirement Kills

I came across this study by Cornell economists Maria Fitzpatrick and Timothy Moore and want to share it with you, dear reader. The gist is that US Census figures reveal a clear correlation between premature death and premature...

Three Hacks for your Financial Resolutions

As I write this, everyone around me has thrown off the shackles of self-restraint and entered full-on holiday feast mode. And why not? It's a festive time of year where every excuse is given to eat, drink and be merry. Besides, on New...

The Wheel In The Sky

Have you ever noticed how fads come and go? Hula hoops were a thing once. Pet rocks, lava lamps and beanie babies, too. I can remember thinking I was to coolest guy ever rocking my mullet and parachute pants. And some fads even come...

The Most Familiar Bias

When was the last time you ordered a brand-new dish at your favorite restaurant? I ask because I've noticed that there is a spectrum from adventurous to fearful when it comes to the people I often dine with. I'm the adventurous type...

An 18 Year Breakout?

As a 44-year old man, I'm dealing with male pattern baldness and acne. That doesn't seem fair. It should be one or the other. Acne breakouts in my teens makes sense. Thinning hair and an expanding waistline in my forties is to be...

Oxymorons and Roller Coasters

There are phrases and terms that don’t make sense together. Jumbo Shrimp. Freezer Burn. Army Intelligence. You get the idea. When it comes to your investments one oxymoron stands out: Standard Deviation. Before we talk about...

6 Reasons to Fear a Financial Planner

Today is Halloween as I put these thoughts to paper. Tonight, I’ll take my wife and daughter around the neighborhood to scare the candy out of the neighbors. My costume will be easy; I am FrankenPlanner. That’s right,...

The Emotional Math of Losses

Warren Buffet has been credited with the following quote: “Rule Number 1: Never Lose Money. Rule Number 2: Never Forget Rule Number 1.” If only investing were that simple. Even Warren Buffett, in the short term, experiences...

Longevity, Lifestyle, Legacy and Oxygen Masks

There are three goals when it comes to retirement planning: longevity, lifestyle and legacy. Longevity is the goal of running out of life before you run out of money (and not the other way around). It is the primary, non-negotiable...

Playing Favorites

We all have favorites. There’s a familiarity and dependability when you order your favorite food at your favorite restaurant while sitting at your favorite restaurant. In fact, now that I have a three-year-old, we rarely venture...

Does Your Doctor Work for You?

Imagine going to a Primary Care Physician for the first time. You discover that recently she’s changed her practice. Instead of Dr. Feelgood, MD the name has changed to Big Pharma Doctors, Inc. Her practice is no longer...

The Dangerous Descent into Retirement

Let’s say you want to climb a mountain. What’s your goal? “To get to the top, of course,” your reply. Wrong! The goal is to get to the summit and safely get back down. When I was in college a guy named Jason...

The Love Affair with Liquidity

The Four Factors℠ are: Growth/Yield, Liquidity, Fees and Volatility. Every investment option can be analyzed for each of The Four Factors℠. An example would be investing in raw land. There’s no yield, but there is growth...

The Four Factors 101

What’s The Four FactorsSM? When I speak with clients, I like to remind them that every investment has positive and negative attributes, depending on your goal. Over the years, I developed The Four FactorsSM. These four factors...

Disconnecting During and After Divorce

Winston Churchill once said, “Never, never, never give up.” I think that’s good advice for women at each stage of divorce. You see, it’s easy to tire and take your eye off the prize. But keep going. Dot every...

Four Reasons to Ignore the Financial News for Seven Days

I’d like you to consider taking a 7-day financial news fast challenge. That’s right. Seven days with no financial news, televised or online. Weather and traffic updates are okay, but other than that try 7 days. Here’s...

Should I fund a Roth or Traditional IRA/401k?

There is a debate whether you should contribute to a traditional or Roth IRA or 401k (if your company even has a Roth 401k option). Choose Ye This Day This is an important decision, now more than ever. A growing number of work...

Women and Financial Strategies

Forty-four percent of American women are the primary breadwinner in their house.1 Yet only 10% of women feel very confident in their ability to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle.2 Although more women are providing for their...

The 3C’s of Coping

In times of transition and stress, we look for coping mechanisms. We need something to gives us a shot of dopamine to calm our frazzled nerves. What’s your drug of choice? Consumption Mine is Amazon Prime. When I’ve got a...

Sharks vs. Dolphins

My family once spent the day with a guide who took us to swim with dolphins in the Florida Keys. This wasn’t a tourist trap fish tank where some poor captured mammal entertains visitors from Hoboken. We were out in the wild,...

Forgiveness as a Financial Planning Tool

Do you remember that song, “That’s Just the Way it Is?” I’m listening to it now as I write this. I was in 6th grade when it came out. It topped the charts and made me wish I never quit piano lessons in 4th grade...

Budget Making Takes Longer Than You Think

First, a confession. I don’t like budgets, I don’t like tracking my spending. Just like most normal people. But if you are in the midst of the loss of a spouse due to death setting up your new budget is even more complex....

A Bucket Plan to Go with Your Bucket List

Consider a bucket plan to go with your bucket list. The baby boomers have re-defined everything they’ve touched, from music to marriage to parenting and, more lately, to what “old” means—60 is the new 50! Longer...

Inflation & Your Money

The CPI has shown low inflation since '09. Are your prices rising faster than the average? Read the rest of the story.