From march of 2024 to March of 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made a oopsy daisy. As it turns out, 911,000 didn’t exist. The department in charge of tracking employment doesn’t count anything. They make projections from voluntary surveys. Let me ask you, if your business is not doing well, do you fill out surveys? No, you work harder. Only nerds who want to brag fill the out. It’s lazy and purposely misleading to keep doing it this way. The BLS makes no sense when payroll giant ADP actually counts jobs. Keep in mind, BLS is also in charge of tracking inflation. Which they are also terrible at. Instead look at Truflation.com or gasbuddy.com.
Banks own more gold than US Dollars. Banks have been buying 1000 tons of gold per month. Not since 1996 have banks held this much gold versus the US dollar. What do you think the Central Banks are concerned about? Maybe a recession.
All that to say, more trustworthy models are admitting we may have been in a recession since May of 2024. Or at least there's a 71% chance that's true. Even Bloomberg is saying this. Remember,economists are 100% accurate in hindsight. Kind of like the BLS after two years of revisions. The recession that started in January of 2008 was confirmed in December of 2008. In April of 2008, Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chair said it was highly unlikely we would have one at all. Nice.
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But that’s good news. We are wide awake and ready for what’s next. Concerned. Let’s book a call here.