It's June 17, 2019. Today the yield curve has been inverted for a full 90 days. According to professor Harvey Campbell of Duke University, that means a recession is coming in 12 to 18 months. He wrote a dissertation in 1986 and the metric he discovered has yet to be wrong.Source
Are things different this time? We shall see.
In case you're wondering, a yield curve is inverted when you can get more interest on a 3 month Treasury than a 10 year treasury. It should be the other way around in a healthy economy. Longer term should equal higher interest or yield to the buyer. Investors predicting a recession are happy to get less interest compared to the price of other assets they think will fall soon. To learn more, click here.
Suffice it to say, we'll send you updates as things develop. If you have any questions, please click here to contact us. Now back to our regularly scheduled lives.